Archive for February, 2007

08
Feb

Juicier than Batu Kawan seafood…

Analysts: Batu Kawan shares attractive (14 Feb 07)

PETALING JAYA: Analysts think Batu Kawan Bhd shares are attractive and offer a cheaper entry for exposure to associate company, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK). 

Batu Kawan owns 46% of KLK, a stake worth RM5.2bil based on the latter’s market closing price of RM15.80 yesterday. In comparison, Batu Kawan’s market value is RM3.6bil. 

Yesterday, Batu Kawan shares closed 10 sen higher at RM12.30 while KLK gained 20 sen. 

An analyst with Aseambankers estimated Batu Kawan’s revised net asset value (RNAV) at RM5.5bil based on the surplus of RM3.2bil in the market value of its KLK stake over its book value, and Batu Kawan’s shareholders’ funds of RM2.3bil as at end-September 2006.

This would translate to an RNAV per share of RM18.90 for Batu Kawan. Assuming a liquidity discount of 20%, the analyst arrived at a fair value of RM15.10 for Batu Kawan, which still provided a substantial upside potential from the current share price level. 

“A cheaper exposure to KLK is via its immediate holding company, Batu Kawan,” he said in a report. 

Another bank-backed brokerage in a recent report said KLK was expected to benefit from the upturn in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, given the supply risks from El Nino and sub-par rainfall conditions in key palm oil regions in Indonesia, coupled with firmer demand from India. 

“On top of that, there are potential earnings upside for KLK from improved capital management practices,” the research house said.

股海宝藏: 从巴菲特价值投资看峇都加湾股值 2007/02/08 11:54:19
●恒星
 
价值投资的定义

美国股神巴菲特采用价值投资法而成为全球最伟大的股票投资家。价值投资是以买下整个公司的审慎态度来下单买股票,注重的是公司内在价值,即业务与盈利成长潜力、企业竞争力、财务状况、管理层素质与投资回报率,而不是视其他外在因素如股市状况,指数成份股地位、股票流通率等。
现在,我想以峇都加湾(BKawan,1899,主板种植股) 和吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股) 为例,说明价值投资的精髓。
峇都加湾是吉隆甲洞母公司。峇都加湾(扣除股票回购之总股额是2亿8千915万股) 持有吉隆甲洞46.57%股权(3亿5千182万股) 。这等于你买进1000股峇都加湾就持有1143股吉隆甲洞。此外,峇都加湾拥有其他的资产如工业化学与胶基工业投资、3千300万令吉上市股票及其它投资、净现金1亿5千440万令吉等,总值3亿2千830万令吉,或每股1.13令吉。所以,你以每股11.60令吉买进峇都加湾就等于以每股8.60令吉买进吉隆甲洞。[(RM11.60-RM1.13)÷ 1.143 = RM9.16]

股价安全边际

价值投资非常重视价值的安全边际,即买价比公司的实质价值越低就越有价值。

吉隆甲洞是我国著名的蓝筹种植股,虽然股价已上涨至16.20令吉,但是多位投资分析师仍然给予买入的投资建议。因此,你通过峇都加湾以每股仅仅9.16令吉投资于吉隆甲洞,安全边际高达43%。即使吉隆甲洞的股价下滑至9.16令吉,从投资观点而言,你的投资仍不算亏蚀。

长期持有优秀企业

巴菲特经过深入分析,寻找到优秀之企业,以合理或低估的价位大量买入,然后长期持有,甚至终生不卖如可口可乐股票,最终获得巨额的利润。

从峇都加湾与吉隆甲洞的财务数据做个比较,峇都加湾的每股盈利,净资产与股息都比吉隆甲洞高。即然吉隆甲洞是一只优秀的股票,那么峇都加湾肯定比它更优秀。

股价反映公司内在价值

峇都加湾的内在价值比吉隆甲洞更高,股价却比它低了40%。投资分析师把这种现象归咎于吉隆甲洞是指数成份股而峇都加湾却不是,而且吉隆甲洞的股票流通率又比峇都加湾高。其实,这些都不是投资性的因素,但却是价值投资者赚钱的机会。

一般人偏重短期套利,而长期持有优秀企业才是在股市赚大钱之正道。因此,我建议峇都加湾股东向巴菲特看齐,长期紧抱不放。当股价反映峇都加湾的内在价值时,也是其股东互相道贺之日。

二月大送新年礼物

今年2月14日是峇都加湾每股43仙年终股息的除权日,也是公司召开特别股东大会以批准派送红股(2送1股) 之日。.

希望这二项大礼能够成为峇都加湾股东最好的新年礼物。

(作者为资深分析员)